Pro-Choice Activists in the United States Look Ahead to 2024 Elections
Abortion rights are set to be at the heart of debates ahead of US elections in 2024, playing a role in their outcome as well as being affected by them.
A candlelit vigil that marked the 50th anniversary of Roe v. Wade (Dec 13 2021) - Photo by Victoria Pickering
The state of abortion rights in the US today
As the US gears up for the 2024 presidential election, abortion is poised to be a major issue for voters across the country. 2024 is the second full year since the Supreme Court ended the universal right to abortion in the United States with the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Since then, abortion legislation has been completely under the control of individual states. New laws and ballot measures throughout 2023 suggest that individual states will become battlegrounds for this issue, as Republicans seek to ban abortion in red states while Democrats fight to uphold it.
Certainly this has been the case up until now, with a number of US states subject to a flurry of policy changes and new legislation regarding abortion. In the six months first following the Dobbs decision and Roe v. Wade’s overturn, twelve states instituted near-total bans on abortion, with restrictions appearing in many others. In seven states, abortion-related measures have been on the ballots for state elections, with abortion rights so far prevailing in all of them.
“Abortion is a winning issue, including in states that are considered red.”
In 2024, voters in the US will elect the country’s next president, while also voting in a number of smaller elections that may have huge repercussions for abortion rights in individual states. Currently, activists in a number of states are working to get abortion-related measures on the ballots for 2024 elections. In Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Montana, Maryland, New York, Minnesota, Virginia, and more, abortion rights groups are collecting signatures for ballot measures to enshrine abortion rights into their state constitutions. Voters in California, Michigan, Ohio, and Vermont have already approved similar ballot measures, enshrining the right to abortion into their state constitutions since the United States Constitution offers no such protection.
In some of these states, abortion is legal in most cases already. Yet in others, like Arizona and South Dakota, heavier abortion restrictions might mean that pro-choice activists will have a harder time gaining support for ballot measures protecting abortion in their state constitutions. In states with even more restrictive abortion legislation, including Florida and Nebraska, activists are working more simply to get the right to abortion until “fetal viability” included on ballots, reflecting the strength of opposition they face.
Our analysis: Abortion rights key to Democrats’ electoral chances
Beyond the efforts by pro-choice activists to restore and protect abortion rights in the US, the issue is becoming increasingly linked to the Democrats’ electoral strategy for the year ahead. This is particularly true for Democratic senators and represenatives in states such as Arizona and Montana.. Having an abortion measure on the ballot in either state could boost voter turnout and encourage pro-choice voters to rally behind Ruben Gallego in Arizona or Jon Tester in Montana.
Biden campaigning in Iowa in 2020, a campaing which placed reproductive rights at the centre of an anti-Trump message - photo by Gage Skidmore
Indeed, Arizona’s Democratic party chairperson, Yolanda Bejarano, has called abortion a “mobilizing issue” for Arizona voters when it comes to this year’s election. Regarding Arizona’s ballot measure to enshrine abortion in the state constitution, Bejarano told The Guardian, “When abortion is on the ballot, like we saw in Kansas, we saw it in Ohio, what happened in Virginia, people do not want the government interfering with their decisions to grow or start a family. People in Arizona and across the country believe that everyone should be free to decide how and when to start and grow a family free from political interference. This is a big issue.” Bejarano also cites abortion as a crucial part of Democrats’ campaign message: “In 2022, we elected pro-choice Democrats up and down the ticket: our attorney general, our secretary of state, our governor. They were talking about abortion and it is what got them across the finish line.”
Across the United States throughout 2023, abortion-related ballot measures proved to turn out voters in large numbers, making abortion activists optimistic for 2024 elections. Voters’ interest in abortion may also help President Joe Biden as he bids for reelection at a time of fairly low enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is kicking off an abortion-centered “Fight For Reproductive Freedoms” tour after the Biden administration has faced criticism for not promoting the issue of reproductive freedom more vigorously. The cross-party success of Ohio’s Issue 1—the proposal to add abortion rights to Ohio’s state constitution—earlier this year, with about 56% of Ohio voters voting in favor of it, suggests that Republican voters are willing to abandon their party in order to vote pro-choice. As such, it could prove a key pillar of Biden’s fight in a very likely rematch with Trump.
For many Democrats and pro-choice voters, the question is: will it be enough? According to Kimberly Inez McGuire, executive director of Urge: Unite for Reproductive & Gender Equity, quoted in The Guardian, “Abortion is a winning issue, including in states that are considered red. Young people, black voters, rural voters—voters all across [Ohio] came out and we saw support in every single corner of the state. The lesson for other states is: don’t take anyone for granted. Don’t assume they’re gonna support you, but also don’t assume that they’re gonna oppose.”